Published Resources Details Book

Author
Paul, T. V.
Title
Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers
Imprint
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994, 15-37 & 41-63 pp
Description

Accession No.1195

Abstract


"This study assumes that decision makers make cost/benefit calculations prior to launching a war, consistent with the instrumentalist conception of rationality.

This study further assumes that decisions to pursue war and peace are made by decision-making groups with particular external and internal motives. It also views war decisions as conditional, perception dependent and time dependent, i.e. Wars are initiated when decision-makers who may pursue the warpath for attaining their domestic or international goals perceive favourable conditions.

The author assumes the existence of at least four requisite conditions prior to war initiation by a weaker state in the type of asymmetric conflicts covered in this study. They are:
A. The presence of serious conflict of interests.
B. The weaker side values higher the issue in dispute.
C. The weaker side is dissatisfied with the status quo.
D. The weaker side fears deterioration from, or no change in, the status quo in the future.

A detailed analysis of the Japanese offensive against Russia in 1904 is used as an example. The Russo-Japanese War began with Japan's surprise torpedo attack on the Russian Fleet at Port Arthur on the 8th of February 1904. The causes of this war have hitherto been generally sought in the long-run political factors such as the aggressive policies of Russia and the Japanese compulsion to resist its adversary's expansionist moves in the Far East. Military historians and practitioners of war have studied this conflict with keen interest for its lessons in strategy, tactics, and performance of weapons systems, but not necessarily attributing prior changes in these factors as having much causal effect on the Japanese decision to go to war in 1904 against an opponent with more aggregate power resources."