"In recent weeks, both the United States and Britain have taken major decisions which should ensure the continuation of their nuclear deterrents well into the century. Britain is about to choose a successor to Trident. Washington is to design a new generation warhead, which will resist the passage of time and the ageing of components. Along with similar trends in France and Russia, these events clearly signify that the official nuclear powers have every intention of maintaining their nuclear capabilities for the foreseeable future. But what will the nuclear world be like in 2030? We should not assume that it would be that different from today; but some critical events could radically alter current trends."